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中国製造業PMI改善の裏側 通縮と軍需頼みが示す日本企業への経済リスク 中国の4月製造業PMIが50.3と、2カ月連続で節目を上回った。だが、これを中国経済の本格回復と見るのは危険である。数字を支えたのは、民間消費ではなく中東情勢の混迷による海外受注や在庫積み増し需要だ。実際、非製造業PMIは49.4に落ち込み、サービスや建設の弱さが続いている。 中国の内需は依然として通縮圧力を抱えており、家計消費が力強く戻ったとは言えない。さらにPPIの改善も、健全な需要回復というより、エネルギー高や軍需関連の生産増に引っ張られた可能性を慎重に見るべきだ。イラン情勢を背景に軍需・重工業が動けば、統計上は景気が良く見える。しかしそれは国民生活の改善ではない。 日本が注意すべきなのは、この「見かけの回復」に惑わされることだ。中国は内需不振を輸出と過剰生産で補おうとし、その圧力は安値攻勢として海外市場に向かう。景況感50超えという見出しの裏には、消費低迷、地政学リスク、そして軍需頼みの危うい構造がある。日本企業は中国発の数字を鵜呑みにせず、供給網と市場依存のリスクを冷静に見極めるべきである。
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中国製造業PMI改善の裏側 通縮と軍需頼みが示す日本企業への経済リス …
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